# Sweepstakes - Where will it hit... TC Anthony....



## slim6y (Jan 24, 2011)

Sorry, no actual prizes except for respect....

Where will TC Anthony hit?

Answer here.. and we'll check back in a few days to see if you're correct....

I'm just putting it out there and saying... Innisfail (because cyclones that do u-turns generally wipe out Innisfail).

So guess number 1 = Innisfail....

Add your guess below....

(PS - this is not as mindless as many may think)


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## REPTILIAN-KMAN (Jan 25, 2011)

well i lived in a cyclone area for quite a while so i tell you what i am basing my answer off 

facts - 
cyclones love deep cold water 

once they hit the reefs were the water is warmer they slow down 

at a slower speed they are adopt wind variations ( wind speed controls directions ) 

Based off radar , wind speed 7-40knts 

cat 1- tiny little cyclone with little or no effect ( i was in a cat 5 ) and thousands of small ones.

Answer ( wont effect us that much ) 
but mackay to townsville


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## Karly (Jan 25, 2011)

How's you weather been up there Slim? We've been getting very strange weather here... very dry and very cool, most unusual for this time of year... It feels as though the cyclone is sucking all our heat and humidity into it!!
But I'll say it'll hit Cairns, only because I'm going up there this weekend for a holiday and it would just be my luck that I end up stuck in the motel all weekend cos of a stupid cyclone :cry:


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## Dipcdame (Jan 25, 2011)

Bin much rain in Townsville? (My son is moving there next month!)


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## gillsy (Jan 25, 2011)

REPTILIAN-KMAN said:


> well i lived in a cyclone area for quite a while so i tell you what i am basing my answer off
> 
> facts -
> cyclones love deep cold water
> ...


 
They feed off warm water. 

"While tropical cyclones can produce extremely powerful winds and torrential rain, they are also able to produce high waves and damaging storm surge.[38] They develop over large bodies of warm water,[39]"


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## slim6y (Jan 25, 2011)

High water temperature = higher ability to take on 'heat' - latent heat drives the cyclone the most... The fact it is turning is an indication more directed of pressures as well water temperatures in combination with other factors I am sure. 

So far looking at the sweepstakes, you Townsvillians could be in for a low maybe not a cyclone....
_
"Tropical cyclones derive their energy from the warm tropical oceans and do not form unless the sea-surface temperature is above 26.5°C, although once formed, they can persist over lower sea-surface temperatures. Tropical cyclones can persist for many days and may follow quite erratic paths. They usually dissipate over land or colder oceans."_
Source - About Tropical Cyclones


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## Kitah (Jan 25, 2011)

Oh the joys... Never experienced a cyclone/ex cyclone before! Then again I've only been in Townsville for 4 years now. 

And I'm not even gonna try to guess what its gonna do- I have no idea about cyclones, thats why I watch BOM and the weatherzone forums


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## Darlyn (Jan 25, 2011)

REPTILIAN-KMAN said:


> cat 1- tiny little cyclone with little or no effect ( i was in a cat 5 ) and thousands of small ones.
> 
> Answer ( wont effect us that much )
> but mackay to townsville


 
Wow you were in a category 5 cyclone, whereabouts was that? Must of been some strong winds!

I think it will cross over land at Gordonvale and cause a large puddle.


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## REPTILIAN-KMAN (Jan 25, 2011)

I was in two large ones cyclone justin cat 4, 7 deaths in australia recorded and 27 PNG i was based on a whitsunday island at the time ( Hamilton island ) whitsundays were evacd and all staff from other islands brought to hamo as it has was the safest in the whitsunday group.justin was my first major cyclone.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Justin_(1997)

Cyclone Monica - cat 5 - i was based at Goulburn island in the Arafura Sea this cyclone was to pass over us ( small township )it would leave nothing left no deaths on goulburn.
Cyclone Monica - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


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## gillsy (Jan 25, 2011)

I've been on Fraser duing a Cat 1 or 2 Cyclone, we were on an airbed while my father was tieing the tent and everything else down.

The bed was literally floating on a pocket of air.


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## Radar (Jan 25, 2011)

Im gonna say Townsville, because I would like to jinx the load of us and get a few rain days off work :lol:
I was actually camping near Cardwell when Larry hit, had no idea it was more than a bit of rain, made for an interesting couple of days....


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## Karly (Jan 25, 2011)

Dipcdame said:


> Bin much rain in Townsville? (My son is moving there next month!)


 
Not really, i think we've gone a full 3 days now without rain!!! Must be some kind of record for this time of the year :lol:


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## Darlyn (Jan 25, 2011)

I remember Monica, it was huge and made a devastating mess of a lot of the communities.
Got to the coast near Jabiru and died.

That would have been a memorable night for you.
Were you at Warruwi?


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## slim6y (Jan 25, 2011)

Monica, Larry.... both had a huge impact on Cairns. Larry passed as a Cat 4 - not a tree was left standing in our street....

Cyclone Tasha just passed over Gordonvale this year - nothing more than a Merry Christmas and a bit of flooding... Oh, our banana tree fell over (we're in Gordonvale). But I was south (at Port Albert) when Cyclone Tasha fizzled across land.

Ex TC Anthony will be similar - but potentially could gain more strength in the coming days. Though the likelihood of this occurring is low.

Weather in Cairns has been from very wet to now very hot... So potentially some possible cyclone forming weather... Let's say for example ex TC Ant comes in contact with a secondary low pressure system then an intensifying is inevitable... And Where ever it hits could cause more damage. 

But cyclones on the whole are (and I apologise for those who have had losses in cyclones) quite 'exciting' and hence why I do the whole geek-sleek thing and watch them like a hawk via BOM.


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## Firepac (Jan 26, 2011)

Anthony will re-intensify as it moves WNW due to the subtropical steering ridge into more favourable condtions ie less vertical wind sheer, higher SST's etc and away from the dry air it is currently in and will cross the coast around the North Tropical Coast. However Anthony is NOT the main concern for the Qld coast in the next 10 days the predicted cyclone coming in behind Anthony around Feb 03 has the potential to be extremely dangerous IF it eventuates. Click HERE


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## slim6y (Jan 26, 2011)

That's a bit interesting and exciting Firepac... 

The original prediction by BOM last year when La Nina was announced - was 6 cyclones to batter FNQ this season... 

I did expect them exaggerating slightly. This is a usual weather forecasting theme - if it looks like it will be bad, add another 30% just to be sure. Of course they were unable to predict what would happen at Toowoomba. Now they seem to put out continual flash flood warnings (just in case). I've had at least 3 flash flood warnings since Toowoomba (via Early Warning Network). 

La Nina does seem to be playing havoc with our weather - and for those that think this has never occurred or this is far worse... try again, 1974 was similar and perhaps worse. 

La Nina is common and it will help to take Queensland and the East Coast out of drought... (success). But the fact is we're still in for some wild weather before the summer season is up. 

The latest prediction suggests weather will return back to 'normal' by mid year. But not before another 4 + Anthony cyclones could cross the coast... Almost anywhere....

Remember Tropical Cyclone Hamish just a couple of years ago...How H U G E was that? By time it reached just past Townsville it had intensified to the largest Australian category - 5. It could have rivalled, Larry, Steve or maybe even Tracy had it crossed land at Bowen.... And the film set of Australia (and the weird old (and drunk) man who told us about his reporting days) would have been destroyed....

TC Hamish had a central pressure of lower than 950hPa... That's significant!!!! The lowest recorded pressure for Hamish was 925hPa (Cyclone Larry only just topped the scales at around 960hPa) (Cyclone Tracy also just 950hPa).

It was 'lucky' to say the least it changed path at the Sunshine Coast... But even then the damage from the seas it caused was very high!!!

The entire coast of Queensland is not infallible to cyclones!!!!


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## redbellybite (Jan 26, 2011)

cyclones are exciting ...punt on Mackay to Inny ..


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## slim6y (Jan 26, 2011)

redbellybite said:


> cyclones are exciting ...punt on Mackay to Inny ..


 
You'll be the one paying out with odds like that.... Narrow it down just a little... and I already have Innisfail....


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## Firepac (Jan 27, 2011)

All the main models, ie EC, GFS, UKMET and CMC, are all coming into alignment with a coastal crossing of Anthony as a Cat 1 or 2 on Sunday or Monday around the Herbert and Lower Burdekin area. Unfortunately there is also 'broad' agreement with the other larger system crossing around the same general area around 5 days later!! Could be a wet windy next 10 days or so in NQ.


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## slim6y (Jan 27, 2011)

Firepac - could you please link to where you get this info... I found some great sites yesterday - but I didn't bookmark them.... and just like tropical cyclones, they appear to disappear!!!


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## redbellybite (Jan 27, 2011)

as was said on the news experts say it could hit between cook town and mackay ..wow and there called experts  I still say Mackay to Bowen then ha ha ok slimey you can have inny


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## slim6y (Jan 27, 2011)

Maybe.... Nowhere....







Guess who's back... Back again.... 

He's back and he's got some vengeance (for being downgraded....).

Cat 2 by tomorrow night.... 

Bring it...

Where's the second one you talk of Firepac... I've lost any evidence to suggest it will form... also because I can't follow all the abbreviations off the JWTC site...


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## Kitah (Jan 28, 2011)

Anthony has returned...

And this is a link to one site that thinks another will form http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...asts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!144!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006121012!!!step/


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## Karly (Jan 28, 2011)

OK... based on the new and improved TC Anthony.... my prediction is it will hit Ingham. 

Then since the Aust government has "stolen" the money promised to us to fix the nothern highway, and instead are going to use it to rebuild Brisbane, we'll be hit with ANOTHER tax levy so that they can re-build the northern highway. 

And then once they've got the money, they won't fix the nothern highway OR Brisbane, but instead they'll use it to make "improvements" to Parliament House in Canberra, and then throw a huge party with fireworks and Moet et Chandon and caviar to celebrate how AWESOME they are! :evil::evil::evil::evil::evil:


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## slim6y (Jan 28, 2011)

That's kind of funny (because it's true) Karly....

But... Don't dish out those insults too quickly - a second and more significant cyclone is still looking 'good' as the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre puts it:

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD."

_source: http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt_


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## Firepac (Jan 28, 2011)

slim6y said:


> Firepac - could you please link to where you get this info... I found some great sites yesterday - but I didn't bookmark them.... and just like tropical cyclones, they appear to disappear!!!



EC seems to be the best model for Tropical regions See Here Its updated at 5am and 5pm Qld time

Watch now issued for Innisfail to Sarina has the potential to make it to cat 3 status just before crossing the coast. As I said in previous posts the developing low ( will probably be TC Yasi when it develops) in the eastern Coral Sea is the one to keep a close eye on. I is progged to be a large and potentially powerful storm which will effect a large part of the Queensland coast.


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## Kitah (Jan 28, 2011)

Quite cool looking... and might I add, I'm starting to worry just a tad. I've never been in a cyclone before


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## Firepac (Jan 28, 2011)

Kitah said:


> Quite cool looking... and might I add, I'm starting to worry just a tad. I've never been in a cyclone before



Hope you have done your preparations Kitah....should get wet and windy in townsville on sunday night!!

I went through the eye of Ului last year so you can have this one )


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## Kitah (Jan 28, 2011)

Yup, have everything I need. well, I think I do...


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## slim6y (Jan 28, 2011)

Kitah - fuel you car and a fuel can... Bye lots of tinned foods. Fill your bathtub with clean water (or at least your sinks). 

Keep candles, torches, and your mobile phone fully charged. Even if mobile phone services go, you can still listen to radio (if your phone has it).

Cat 3 is windy, but not as severe as of course the likes of Larry, Tracy or even Ului... It'll be windy - yes.... Rainy... yes... but over and done with in 3 - 5 hours... Then calm 

It pays to close curtains in case windows break (or tape them).

And despite Mythbusters suggesting that opening a window on the sheltered side does not work... Bernoulli suggests otherwise... You need to equal the pressure in the house as well as out of the house to keep the roof from lifting... always gap windows on the sheltered side and then if you happen to pass the eye, shut the windows on the sheltered side and open the opposite side... Because soon that'll become the sheltered side....

But above all - enjoy it... Stay indoors... People who get hurt in cyclones generally are outdoors!!!

I am sticking with Innisfail to bear the brunt of Anthony... And maybe Yasi will hit the Ville....

Firepac - how did you get 'Yasi' - wouldn't that have to be discovered first by Fiji for the 'Y' to be used? What about Borris?


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## Firepac (Jan 28, 2011)

slim6y said:


> Kitah - fuel you car and a fuel can... Bye lots of tinned foods. Fill your bathtub with clean water (or at least your sinks).
> 
> Keep candles, torches, and your mobile phone fully charged. Even if mobile phone services go, you can still listen to radio (if your phone has it).
> 
> ...



Ului was a minimal Cat 3 when it passed over Hamilton Island and Airlie Beach and very quickly weakened to be cat 2 by ther time it got to Proserpine. There is some argument about that but i don't believe wind strengths and structural damage indicate more than that.

It will form East of 160E which puts it in Fiji's AOR (Area of Responsibilty) hence they will name it. IF it forms west of 160E then yes it becomes in Australia's AOR and will be named Carlos.

Latest EC run (at 5pm) shows the second system crossing at Mackay...still way to far out to call it and it will change with each run of the models.


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## Kitah (Jan 28, 2011)

Slim6y

I've been watching this system for a few days now, and filled the car and petrol container up yesterday. I've also got quite a lot of non-perishable food, bottles of water, first aid kit, torch, candles, lighters etc all ready. MP3 player for radio (it has an incredibly long battery life), and I bought 150m of packing tape today (BoM said to use this?)


Thanks for all the tips  I think if it DOES hit close to me, I'll be taking the pets to a friends place- she's in a more modern brick type house that I think may last better..


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## redbellybite (Jan 29, 2011)

looks like Townsville might be the target ...if so, best of luck to you all ...no doubt we all will get the rain depression further down as it passes ...mmmmm wonder if flooding is on the cards again


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## slim6y (Jan 29, 2011)

Hey, Cyclone Tasha went directly over our house - same category rating and only our banana tree fell over.... It's looking like a fluff in a tea cup (to use your expression RBB).


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## Kitah (Jan 29, 2011)

Ok, few questions if you don't mind  Now I know the track maps aren't a certainty, but say for example the cyclone goes exactly where BoM currently predicts- Townsville will get clipped by one side of it. Do you rekon most houses would withstand it? I'm in an old house thats on narrow metal posts... also, if the roof went when I was here, would it be that much of a big deal, i.e. is it more dangerous then? One thing I am worried about is that this house has a leak in the roof and I'm kinda concerned that this will have weakened the timber up there, but I by no means have any idea about that sort of stuff. But I assume if it were weakened, it'd be more likely to loose the roof in a cyclone? 

Sorry, and I hope that made sense... I'd just rather not leave the house unless necessary (to go to a more secure friends place)... 

And it has _superb_ timing... predicted landfall crossing just before 4am on Monday morning- the day I'm sposed to start back at uni! I think its gonna be a long day, trying to stay awake throughout the lectures haha (I know, priorities, I know there are more important things )


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## slim6y (Jan 29, 2011)

Kitah... Seriously lassie.... don't stress it too much...

Cyclones are a breeze (scuse the pun)....

Remember open the sheltered side windows... That keeps pressure the same in and out of the house helping the roof. 

Most houses survive cyclones (and yours has probably survived several already).

This is a low intensity tropical cyclone - wind gusts less than 100km/hr. 

If you're ever in doubt and things look uncertain, get to know your neighbour(s)


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## Kitah (Jan 29, 2011)

Rightio, thanks  incase you hadn't noticed, I have a tendency to be somewhat paranoid, and I like to be prepared. Especially for something like a cyclone, which I've never experienced before...

It doesn't help that I was talking to a local thats lived here for years, and he said that a cyclone isn't something you want to experience, and its like the saying "stick your head between your knees and kiss your bum goodbye"... I'm thinking he may have been exaggerating haha.


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## Firepac (Jan 29, 2011)

Kitah, as Slim6y said as long as TC Anthony remains Cat 1 or 2, and it looks like it will struggle to reach Cat 2, there is little to worry about as far as damage to your house EXCEPT if neighbours havent done their yard clearing, most damage is caused by flying debris like trampolines, loose roofing iron, chairs etc, breaking windows and letting rain and wind in. There will be damage to trees etc especially with the wet ground and this in turn will cause some structural damage.

As I have been saying for a week or so now the second system is the one to watch closely, some models suggest it could potentially reach Cat 4 or even 5. Winds in Cat 4 are 225kph - 280kph and in Cat 5 280 kph plus!! These are extremely dangerous and not to be taken lightly. Whilst they system still has not formed it is showing signs of circulation and development. Listen to any advices, watches and warning issued by the BoM during next week. It is way to early to predict a crossing location but I would expect somewhere between Cairns to Gladstone, but this will change and narrow down as the system forms and steering influences change.


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## redbellybite (Jan 29, 2011)

slim6y said:


> Hey, Cyclone Tasha went directly over our house - same category rating and only our banana tree fell over.... It's looking like a fluff in a tea cup (to use your expression RBB).


that would be a 'fart in a jar'


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## Kitah (Jan 29, 2011)

Ok thanks Firepac, I feel somewhat better now! I've cleared everything from downstairs and the yard except for my Turtles filter, which I will move sunday afternoon (I'm trying to leave it as late as possible, so I can try and keep my bacteria alive!!)


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## Fuscus (Jan 29, 2011)

redbellybite said:


> looks like Townsville might be the target ...if so, best of luck to you all ...no doubt we all will get the rain depression further down as it passes ...mmmmm wonder if flooding is on the cards again


As far as rain down here goes, the low off WA could contribute greatly Interactive Weather and Wave Forecast Maps .
Looks like the gumboots won't get dusty soon


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## Jen (Jan 29, 2011)

Looks like Anthony (cat 1) is going to be a bust, while Bianca (cat 3) is heading into Perth. I'm just thrilled there's rain lol


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## Kitah (Jan 29, 2011)

Oh the joys, we're now on cyclone warning, and the latest BoM map has it hitting Tville just about dead center...


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## redbellybite (Jan 30, 2011)

seems my target was a bit more on the mark then you slimey  I still reckon Bowen may get the full brunt yet ..and with the chances of it going up to a two ..hold onto your hats people 



Jen said:


> Looks like Anthony (cat 1) is going to be a bust, while Bianca (cat 3) is heading into Perth. I'm just thrilled there's rain lol


Bianca has fizzed out Jen ..but the rain will be good for you guys ..


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## Firepac (Jan 30, 2011)

Townsville, Ayr or Bowen any of the above will brings flooding rains here on the southern side... might get a day off work tomorrow!!

Take a look here see how small TC Anthony is compared to the system forming near Fiji.... and that isn't even a cyclone yet!


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## redbellybite (Jan 30, 2011)

HOLY CRAP !! Firepac that is actually frightening....


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## Firepac (Jan 30, 2011)

redbellybite said:


> HOLY CRAP !! Firepac that is actually frightening....



Yes...it IS a serious system which will threaten a large part of the Queensland coast.....and I am NOT being sensationalist.

That is the IR view so it is showing temperature of the tops of the clouds with red and black being coldest, so you can see how deep a system it already is. It should reach cyclone status sometime today or overnight and continue to move west and intensify.


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## redbellybite (Jan 30, 2011)

it seems to be in line with Gladstone ?


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## Firepac (Jan 30, 2011)

redbellybite said:


> it seems to be in line with Gladstone ?



Way too early to call but my gut feel is that Gladstone is on the southern end of the possible crossing locations Based on current models I think Townsville + or - a couple of hundred klms is more likely.


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## slim6y (Jan 30, 2011)

Ok - I was wrong... There's not a sheeps show in hell that it'll hit Innisfail... But the next one (Yasi you say it will be called?)... Now there's a new sweepstakes to be had!

Anthony to pass over Bowling Green Bay At approximately 11pm tonight as a category one... The rock wallabies there might want to hide behind slightly more secure rocks....

But Yasi.... I'm narrowing that one to Townsville - North... Between Cooktown and Lucinda to narrow it slightly... But the system is still chaotic - and how can we tell?


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## Firepac (Jan 30, 2011)

redbellybite said:


> seems my target was a bit more on the mark then you slimey  I still reckon Bowen may get the full brunt yet ..and with the chances of it going up to a two ..hold onto your hats people


 
Looks like you will be very close with your call of Bowen, possibly even here in Proserpine - it does seems to take a more southerly track each update.


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## Jen (Jan 30, 2011)

Bianca has fizzed out Jen ..but the rain will be good for you guys ..[/QUOTE]

Looks like we won't even be getting rain at this stage, sigh, it's stinking hot and humid and I was actually looking forward to a severe storm, how sad...


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## Darlyn (Jan 30, 2011)

redbellybite said:


> HOLY CRAP !! Firepac that is actually frightening....



Totally second that.
Wow, heres hoping it fizzles


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## slim6y (Jan 30, 2011)

Keep following the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre site... it gives realistic and thorough information:

In 72 hours it will be in direct line with the Far North (ie Cooktown)...

"TC 11P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A 20-25 KNOT RATE PER DAY THROUGH 
TAU 72 AND AT A SLOWER RATE UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 96. THERE 
IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO PEAK HIGHER THAN 110 KNOTS AND MAKE 
LANDFALL AS A VERY STRONG, LARGE SYSTEM."

110 knots is approaching 200km/hr - this is one huge and serious cyclone... But just its shear size is the worry - it may be a lower category than Monica or Tracy by time it hits landfall... But it's unlikely to be small like them!!!!

In fact here's the naval track... eeeeeeek







PS - good luck if you're in Ingham


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## redbellybite (Jan 30, 2011)

OMG!!!!!!!!! that is scary ****zzzz ...imagine after the winds all the bloody NON NEEDED RAIN


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## Kyro (Jan 30, 2011)

This pic shows how massive she is:shock:


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## Firepac (Jan 30, 2011)

From BOM's extended outlook ...

*Forecast for Wednesday*

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across most of the state as the atmosphere remains moist and unstable. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase to thundery rain areas during the day about the east coast and adjacent inland between about Cooktown and Bundaberg with strong to possibly gale force winds developing due to the approach of Tropical Cyclone Yasi. 
*Forecast for Thursday*

Tropical Cyclone Yasi is likely to make landfall on the Queensland east coast as a large and strong system. The most likely area of crossing is again the tropical coast although the potential exists for a crossing further north or south. Storm to hurricane force winds and very heavy rainfall are likely to accompany the passage of Tropical Cyclone Yasi, and extend inland during the day to the adjacent interior. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms persisting over the west of the state. Scattered showers about the southeast and isolated showers over the southern interior. 





Slim6y - so far this year JTWC has not done well with early predictions of the cyclones, however I certainly prefer its prediction to EC's !! With a cyclone that size a large part of the coast will experience destructive winds and major flooding especially on the southern side.


As for TC Anthony its been getting wetter and windier all day, palm trees now bending dramatically with horizontal rain, we are just on the edge of the strong gale force wind boundary. The crossing point still seems to be between Ayr and Bowen.


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## redbellybite (Jan 30, 2011)

As for TC Anthony its been getting wetter and windier all day, palm trees now bending dramatically with horizontal rain, we are just on the edge of the strong gale force wind boundary. The crossing point still seems to be between Ayr and Bowen. 

LOOKS LIKE I WON PIN THE TAIL ON THE CYCLONE


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## slim6y (Jan 30, 2011)

Well done RBB... you're as good as Nostradamus...

Now can you up the stakes and predict where Cyclone Yasi will hit?

Here's a start for you - with compliments of the Vanuatu Meteorological Service:






Again... I pick INGHAM as point of impact...


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## redbellybite (Jan 30, 2011)

Well done RBB... you're as good as Nostradamus...

Just call me RBB --RESPECT  ha ha ha 

this one SCARES THE TOTAL COLOUR OUT OF MY CRAP !!!.......it is huge and I fear for anywhere it hits ...will wait another 24hrs till I take a punt though ...


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## Darlyn (Jan 30, 2011)

Dam redbelly you get all the prizes!
Oh wait that's right there are none : )

Might be easier to predict where the next one wont hit, it's so massive.


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## Firepac (Jan 31, 2011)

Wow! Wild, wet and windy night here in Proserpine. The eye passed over Bowen, 50km north of here, with winds to around 120-140kph.

Now to watch TC Yasi with some trepidation, he/she will pack winds possibly twice that. Watch the news today with footage of the winds from Bowen and then try to double it...scary stuff!!


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## redbellybite (Jan 31, 2011)

SORRY BOWEN PEOPLE BUT I HAD A HUNCH IT WAS COMING YOUR WAY ...now for that HUGE monster I am very frightened to say where that will end up ,as I THINK alot more of us are going to get the sting from it too ..down my way the winds wont be an issue but the aftermath rain will almost be guarenteed...This morning even had an eery look to it ..mild misty rain with a very pink/orange /grey colour sky and not even a puff of air so still ...


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## REPTILIAN-KMAN (Jan 31, 2011)

Firepac said:


> Wow! Wild, wet and windy night here in Proserpine. *The eye passed over Bowen, 50km north of here, with winds to around 120-140kph*.
> 
> Now to watch TC Yasi with some trepidation, he/she will pack winds possibly twice that. Watch the news today with footage of the winds from Bowen and then try to double it...scary stuff!!


 

I was right on that one !!!* my first and only prediction* was that it was to enter on *land between mackay and townsville* !
while most said cairns most cyclones swing around even when the forcasting was avaible for a cairns hit cyclones never hit where u think !!!

so to all those that predicted once only ( u cant predict and keep predicting ? its like betting and then when not in your favor back another ) 

Congrats if you picked bowen or like me between mackay and townsville !!

hey firepac hows the whitsundays i love it up there !! conway national park is the best can ya ship a freshie down to sydney for me !! ha ha ha 

be back on hamilton for race week up there !!!


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## slim6y (Jan 31, 2011)

I'd like to say I'm the only one who actually predicts LONG before the track maps are showing... I'm sticking with Ingham, even though the latest tracking by the US Navy set to Townsville for Yasi... I won't change... not like some people who pick ridiculously huge areas... Why not say somewhere between Cape York and Brisbane.... 

Ingham... Watch out!!!


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## Karly (Jan 31, 2011)

Well my guess was waaaay off! But I was very lucky... what a glorious weekend in Cairns!! Have you ever heard of a summer holiday in Cairns when it didn't rain?!?!?! 

Slim- it sounds like you've got some kind of grudge against us Townsvillians... you keep trying to send the cyclones to us :shock:
Anyway, my prediction for Yasi is Ingham again, but since you already have Ingham, I'll say Cardwell.


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## REPTILIAN-KMAN (Jan 31, 2011)

cyclone Yasi - will hit townsville my choice

*CATEGORY 4 (severe tropical cyclone)*

Significant roofing loss and structural damage. Many caravans destroyed and blown away. Dangerous airborne debris. Widespread power failures. A Category 4 cyclone's strongest winds are VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with typical gusts over open flat land of 225 - 279 km/h. These winds correspond to the highest category on the Beaufort scale, Beaufort 12 (Hurricane).

*CATEGORY 5 (severe tropical cyclone)*

Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction. A Category 5 cyclone's strongest winds are VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with typical gusts over open flat land of more than 280 km/h. These winds correspond to the highest category on the Beaufort scale, Beaufort 12 (Hurricane


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## Karly (Jan 31, 2011)

REPTILIAN-KMAN said:


> cyclone Yasi - will hit townsville my choice
> 
> 
> Great.... Just great..


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## slim6y (Jan 31, 2011)

Karly said:


> Slim- it sounds like you've got some kind of grudge against us Townsvillians... you keep trying to send the cyclones to us :shock:



Yeah Karly, a big grudge against T-ville  

But I've never once said it'll hit the Ville... I've maintained that it will always hit the 'real' far north of Qld... 

And the latest tracking map shows little or no deviation from my Ingham - Townsville prediction.

But I've been putting some co-ordinates into Google Maps - and unless there is that West - Southwest change, then Cairns is the likely target. But the Navy predicts the change because of some trough... but again, the system is chaotic and in the next 72 hours there could be any number of variables occurring...

As much as I don't want the damage associated with a large cyclone, I'm not particularly worried if it does slam into Cairns. I'm well prepared, I don't own a home (rental and solid brick home), I live on a slight (but very exposed) hill safe from flooding, I'm too far from the ocean to be affected by a storm surge - and above all... I could do with a few more days off work... So 'Bring it....'


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## Karly (Jan 31, 2011)

> But I've been putting some co-ordinates into Google Maps - and unless there is that West - Southwest change, then Cairns is the likely target.


 
Good! You can have it :lol:
we've done as much as we can to prepare, but the pot-head next door still has ******* lying around everywhere in his yard... (I doubt he even knows there is a cyclone coming) so it doesn't matter what we do, we'll still end up with all his junk flying onto our yard!!!


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## slim6y (Jan 31, 2011)

Karly - you can call the SES an they can do the moving of stuff for you (I think there's some law there somehow).

Here's the latest threat map with good confidence of track:







Oh... what it doesn't really show is that the intensity of the 100knt + winds has a very large radius!!! We're in for a rough few days!

BoM say:






Who will you believe?

US Navy with several billion $$$ invested in these waters... or BoM....?


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## Firepac (Jan 31, 2011)

BOM every time. The US navy use one algorithm to predict the tracks of cyclones, it is just one model, BOM take into account all of the major models with their differing algorithms though they tend to favour EC..... I don't mind admitting this event terrifies me..this will have a HUGE storm surge and significant flooding associated with it anyone on the coast or in low lying areas so consider evacuation in the next 24hrs. Rainfall possibly in excess of 1000mm and winds around 250klm near the centre.


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## Karly (Jan 31, 2011)

Thanks Slim I might have to check that out. I think he has his junk "strategically" piled up to hide his.... erm... "herb garden", will be interesting to see his reaction when a bunch of men in orange overalls rock up on his door step! :shock:

But seriously, Firepac you're not alone, pretty much everyone is worrying. I work in the maritime industry, Cairns has just closed their port, Townsville is soon to follow, Bowen and Abbott Point didn't even bother re-opening.


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## Emilie (Jan 31, 2011)

I`ll give Port Douglas a go. They haven`t had one since 99 I believe


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## Radar (Jan 31, 2011)

Now doesn't this look like a fun one. Im going to go with it making landfall across about 600km of coastline simultaneously....Townsville and north of....lol.


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## slim6y (Jan 31, 2011)

Firepac said:


> BOM every time. The US navy use one algorithm to predict the tracks of cyclones, it is just one model, BOM take into account all of the major models with their differing algorithms though they tend to favour EC..... I don't mind admitting this event terrifies me..this will have a HUGE storm surge and significant flooding associated with it anyone on the coast or in low lying areas so consider evacuation in the next 24hrs. Rainfall possibly in excess of 1000mm and winds around 250klm near the centre.


 
I do understand the US Navy using just one algorithm, but I don't trust BoM on this one. They'll chop and change as the next 72 hours progress - one hour it'll be hitting Cooktown, the next Gladstone... The US Navy, from previous experience get much closer at long to mid range forecasts. But when they get it wrong they admit it in their warnings. Hers is an excerpt from warning number 3:

THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS BASED LARGELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

This time I trust the Navy!


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## Firepac (Jan 31, 2011)

slim6y said:


> I do understand the US Navy using just one algorithm, but I don't trust BoM on this one. They'll chop and change as the next 72 hours progress - one hour it'll be hitting Cooktown, the next Gladstone... The US Navy, from previous experience get much closer at long to mid range forecasts. But when they get it wrong they admit it in their warnings. Hers is an excerpt from warning number 3:
> 
> THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS BASED LARGELY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
> 
> This time I trust the Navy!



I hope you, and they, are right slim6y..... the further north the better as far as i am concerned though I wouldn't wish this on anyone.

I notice BOM's latest track has a slight shift further north..... 

I have been told by 2 reliable sources that Hamilton Island has evacuated ALL guests and the majority of its staff.


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## Darlyn (Jan 31, 2011)

I'm going Mossman, cos hopefully the further up the less populated, and everyone else has taken 
the best bits. Don't want it to far north cos then it could pop into the gulf and continue on it's merry way.


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## redbellybite (Jan 31, 2011)

mmmmm the way its going I am thinking Cairns and the close surrounding areas (due to the expantion of this monster) will cop full brunt its to big to just pick one place ...I am so worried for anyone that is going to cop this full on ...


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## slim6y (Jan 31, 2011)

I just read something interesting...

"Westerly down slope winds in the Cairns region are notoriously destructive. An example was the so-called tropical Cyclone Agnes in March 1956, which crossed the coast directly over Townsville with a central pressure reading of 960hPa. Agnes had a very large circulation, which after landfall straddled the large mountainous areas south of Cairns. The westerly down slope winds from this cyclone caused more damage at Cairns than the wind damage around the eye at Townsville."

Taken from "http://www.jcu.edu.au/rainforest/publications/cyclone_report.pdf"

Yep... we're a little concerned  But mostly excited. I'm sure we'll all pull through - it may take some time, and a lot of cleaning up, but we will get through this no worries at all.

It will hit as a category 3 or 4... It will still hit Ingham... And will possibly be the biggest cyclone to ever hit Queensland.

Looking at other large systems, such as Cyclone David... they just don't seem to compare!!!


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## Darlyn (Feb 1, 2011)

After living in Darwin for many years, then living in Cairns for
a couple, I was seriously astounded at the difference in regulations/
requirements in regard to cyclone safety for Cairns. Makes me wonder
how homes will fare against such a large storm.


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## redbellybite (Feb 1, 2011)

Darlyn said:


> After living in Darwin for many years, then living in Cairns for
> a couple, I was seriously astounded at the difference in regulations/
> requirements in regard to cyclone safety for Cairns. Makes me wonder
> how homes will fare against such a large storm.


If this comes in as a cat 4-5 any home is at risk ..but when we were travelling around Australia,my husband,who is a carpenter ,did comment on the different regulations ...
NEWS reckons its gonna hit lower then Cairns now ..between Inni and Mackay ...so who really knows where its gonna hit ...I thought it was a low hitter but then looking at one of the tracking maps it looked as if Cairns and the surrounding areas was a target but now not the case ..shouldve stuck with my first hunch which sadly was Mackay ..like I said though who ever cops this monster I feel for you


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## Firepac (Feb 1, 2011)

Latest map (5am) has it crossing between Cairns and Innisfail. Currently packing winds to 220klm near the centre and intensifying.



slim6y said:


> Yep... we're a little concerned  But mostly excited. I'm sure we'll all pull through - it may take some time, and a lot of cleaning up, but we will get through this no worries at all.
> !



If this hits Cairns it will be devastating, the storm surge itself will do major damage let alone the winds, I am a little concerned how lightly you are taking it. You will get though it yes, but not with no worries at all. There WILL be loss of life.


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## redbellybite (Feb 1, 2011)

Firepac said:


> Latest map (5am) has it crossing between Cairns and Innisfail. Currently packing winds to 220klm near the centre and intensifying.
> 
> 
> 
> If this hits Cairns it will be devastating, the storm surge itself will do major damage let alone the winds, I am a little concerned how lightly you are taking it. You will get though it yes, but not with no worries at all. There WILL be loss of life.


I am with you on that one firepac ..this one isnt to be laughed off as entertainment


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## slim6y (Feb 1, 2011)

I think I need to be far more careful what I wish for....

I've already called up work and said we're going to be cyclone safing today... I don't care if it's a day without pay.... The school should be closed, it's ridiculous to expect people to get ready when the largest cyclone in Queensland's history is bearing down on not Ingham, but Gordonvale.... My humble home... Very humble in the size of this thing....

That eerie two days before the storm has begun already. With misty and calm conditions.

I called the SES to ask where our closest shelter was - the guy hung up on me... Hmmmmmm

I have made plans to sleep in the music department at school - the building is sound proofed, insulated, large, no windows... And very secure... Hopefully.

Will do my best to document all that happens in the next few days... I guess good luck to all in the path of yasi... May less of the force be with you...


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## redlittlejim (Feb 1, 2011)

AHHHHHHHH. lol. not good ay. i been trying to empty my yard of scrap. 280km winds


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## slim6y (Feb 1, 2011)

We have the same issue red.... 

By the way, I need to clarify my 'no worries' comment - it was merely a statement based on 'positive thinking' - perhaps we're all just a little anxious... considering the latest track puts Cyclone Yasi over our house... The eye alone is HUGE!

We'll probably lose power by tomorrow early night...


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## redbellybite (Feb 1, 2011)

This one is hard to pick slimey ..I think anyone that is from top end to mack should take warning cause its so unpredictable ...if it happens to hit you, best of luck pulling through ...and may GOD help all of you guys, its a bloody MONSTER ...


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## Karly (Feb 1, 2011)

The mayhem has started... Our mate who lives in Bushland Beach - the other side of the highway to us - has been told to evacuate, they have evacuated the old peoples home and the HOSPITAL!!! 
This waiting game really really sucks... Not knowing what is going to happen.


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## slim6y (Feb 1, 2011)

Just about to watch a live news conference Queensland Police Service - Local Business | Facebook

Shall be interesting...


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## Radar (Feb 1, 2011)

Hope those of you up north are prepped. This is gonna be wild.


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## Karly (Feb 1, 2011)

slim6y said:


> Just about to watch a live news conference Queensland Police Service - Local Business | Facebook
> 
> Shall be interesting...



Cool let us know what they say. I don't have sound on my work computer so I can't watch it.


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## slim6y (Feb 1, 2011)

You probably don't want to know what they said Karly... Basically they're saying they're as prepared as they can be for the given information. As far as they can tell a significant storm surge will affect all low lying areas - Cairns Base Hospital is being evacuated, Cairns Private Hospital is being evacuated. 250km/hr winds expected. 

I can't even move my snake cage inside!!! It's too large for the door frame!!! Going to try and get it to the garage... but I don't know if my garage door will withstand those sorts of winds... I have no where else to put the snakes!!! 

Our current plan is to bunker at my school in the music department - no windows and structurally sound building. However, it is only 16m above sea level. But a fair few km from the ocean. 

Another minor blessing is impact time is considered to be 1am - this would coincide with low tide - thankfully! That can give us an extra few metres. 

Cairns to Innisfail is the red alert zone (currently) (which means Ingham is not the point of impact as I had suggested). But things may change. 

I'll be taking my family to the Music Department at school - unfortunately that means we won't be getting home for quite some time after it hits. 

We leave tomorrow at 8am or earlier with our current plan.


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## Kitah (Feb 1, 2011)

I know it doesn't look as though its going to hit here now... but my house is included in the storm surge area (hermit park). Its a fibro type house, not brick or anything. People have been saying that if you're in a fibro type house, or in storm surge areas to leave... But I'm not sure if this is right? I'm not sure how high the storm surge will come, as I'm in a 2nd story house and there's nothing under the house. Its on narrow metal round poles.... Would I be safer taking the pets and getting to the university? 

Slim6y, goodluck with your preps, as with everyone else in the affected areas


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## Radar (Feb 1, 2011)

You probably would be better going to uni and getting into someones dorm. I know that area of town pretty well and if you're house is typical I can tell you it may have some issues if we get anything serious, and we may well. Fibro and Cat 4 cyclones don't mix, particularly when the house is elevated. Hermit park also floods at the drop of a hat...


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## Kitah (Feb 1, 2011)

Mhmm thats what I was thinking. Everything is packed and either in garbage bags (double bagged), plastic boxes, or both. I'll have all 4 cats in cages, and turt in a box... If I need to get out, I can do so very quickly. I've had a few people offer to let me stay there, and I'm thinking the uni would be safe if they'll let me take my pets (in cages)


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## slim6y (Feb 1, 2011)

New plan.... we're outter here... stuff waiting for this monster to hit our house....

Will return hopefully to a fully intact house...

Anyone in mackay wanna put us up tonight?  

I have till Sunday off anyhow... so we'll all be fine....


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## Karly (Feb 1, 2011)

> You probably don't want to know what they said Karly...


 
Yeah it's a bit like that hey... 
Can't you put the snakes in some kind of temporary "accommodation" and take them with you? Maybe a friend has some room for them? We've got our two MASSIVE monitor enclosures out on our patio, both have thousands of dollars worth of glass doors... The only thing we can do with them is turn them around so the glass is up against the brick wall so that if anything does come flying in at them it only hits the wooden backs. But so far it looks as though we will escape most of it. Sorry to sound so selfish....but I hope it stays on it's current path!

Kit, if you get stuck you are more than welcome to bring your animals to our place. And your self for that matter


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## Radar (Feb 1, 2011)

Slim if you don't get that far, you're welcome to stop over here. Not as safe as mackay though...


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## Firepac (Feb 1, 2011)

Glad to see you have decided to evacuate slim6y, it really is the only safe option as hard a decision as it is to make especially when you dont know what you will return to.

My personal feeling is that it will take a wsw turn as the subtropical ridge that is currently keeping it on a westward path breaks down in about 6 -12 hours and moves east. The system however has a large amount of momentum so will not curve to the sw straight away but rather wsw. The main factor that has kept the track to the west rather than the sw as was progged earlier is the speed at which it is traveling, which means that it will be closer to the coast before the ridge weakens and allows the sw movement.

Anyway, all the best to anyone affected by it, even as far south from it as I am we will be getting probably Cat 1 winds and heavy rain.

Stay safe all and I will be following its progress with great interest here and on the weatherzone forums.


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## redbellybite (Feb 1, 2011)

ALL THE BEST GUYS .....there is nothing any of us can say to comfort you ..this is going to happen all we can do is hope you lot that are up there can stay reasonably safe and fingers cross you dont lose your lives or your homes  xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx


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## Sel (Feb 1, 2011)

Heavy stuff.. 
Id be totally beside myself, actually id probably be halfway to my mums house in the country by now lol i dont do nasty weather!
Good luck everyone..

Slimy- Take your snakes with you


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## Radar (Feb 1, 2011)

Ok, looks like we wake up in the morning and it gets pretty interesting from there out. Hope everyone gets through it intact and lets help out on the other side if any of us are in a position to do so.


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## Kitah (Feb 1, 2011)

Just found out I'm in an area that will be evacuated between 5am and 9am tomorrow morning, due to the storm surges.

Category 5, now 'targeted' at Innisfail. I don't want this thing to hit anywhere, but I certainly don't want it to come further south. Got up early this morning so I'd be awake if they came door knocking, and saw the BoM maps- I will admit the blood drained from my face..


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## slim6y (Feb 2, 2011)

Anyone want a laugh before the cyclone hits....

My gearbox died in the car at Mackay... We were towing our entire evacuation package - tents, food, sleeping gear, more food, water, fuel, gas... The works. Most was still packed from my recent camping adventure.

So it was because it was still packed that we decided evacuation (yesterday by midday). 

We did manage to get the RACQ to come out around 11:30pm last night to tow the car to Sarina - the very tip of the warning zone.

Unfortunately he couldn't fit the trailer on the tray, so he attached it to the towbar of the truck. But so many factors were wrong... The U-Bolt wouldn't fit. The light socket was the wrong type etc etc... But he still attached it...

Unfortunately my trailer flipped spilling EVERYTHING on the Bruce Highway... Everything is lost!!! Plus our house is set as the target of the eye of Cyclone Yasi.... Hmmmmm.... But you know what... We're alive, we're safe... And I have my family with me.... We'll be safe!!!

Sorry to leave Cairns behind, I'm very aware we might not be able to go back... even if the car is fixed... Good luck to those who chose to stay... Many left, we were part of a huge exodus... Good luck all....


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## Karly (Feb 2, 2011)

Ummm Slim... That's not very funny! Thank goodness you are all OK. After all, it is just "stuff" isn't it, and stuff can be replaced. How bout your pets?


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## slim6y (Feb 2, 2011)

My pets weren't in the trailer. They're locked away in a safe location - hopefully... but they will be fine as long as the house stays standing... We have our guinea pigs with us though.... They're safe... Cyclone tracking southwest now... but likely to move anywhere between Port Douglas and Cardwell within the next 4 hours...


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## snakeluvver (Feb 2, 2011)

Have you noticed your map of cyclone anthony has changed to Yasi?

I would be terrified up there. Even a little thunderstorm freaks me out let alone a massive cyclone!!!


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## slim6y (Feb 2, 2011)

that's right snakeluver - BoM uses the same web page for the cyclone advices... I guess it saves some confusion.

Looks like Mission Beach as crossing point... Poor Cassowarys!!!


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## snakeluvver (Feb 2, 2011)

Jesus it just hit innisfail


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## Kitah (Feb 4, 2011)

Got quite gusty in Townsville, especially just after the eye hit land further north. Very little structural damage around that I can see, but so many tree's are down. Lots and lots of debris. 

Hope everyone else got through it ok, animals included.


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## slim6y (Feb 7, 2011)

So we finally got home last night, late, battered and weary. 

We had to take the inland route in a rental 4WD.

Can't say this was fun...

Though it appears we're eligible for the $1000 per adult and $400 per child as we were unable to return home, were without power for 48 hours and we've lost ALL of our frozen food - including all of the rats 

But the funny thing is - we have no phone - none at all.. yet I can still get the interweb... why is that??? Same line... ???


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