Ugh this thread is too long for me to read, but each use 15W of power, of those 15W, not all is converted to heat. Some of it is converted to light. But confusion arises in the case of very bright light. The light itself also adds to heat on the surface.
Both 15W globes should cost the same to run. The 12V probably cost more because they need a transformer to convert the 240 down to 12V, which brings in more energy loses due to heat and vibrations in the transformer.
You're comparing apples and oranges when it comes to light bulbs used as heat emitters. If you're talking about ceramic emitters, then you can assume that all 15W of power is converted to heat. But when comparing bulbs, unless you can list two specific globes, it's almost impossible to tell which is brighter/hotter/cheaper.
Maybe get a $20 power meter from Bunnings. One that sits in line between the GPO and the device you're testing. It'll give you a solid answer about how much power it's using.